Open letter for anyone working in Health and Social care to sign and distribute.
Dear Prime Minister,
We are writing to ask you urgently clarify our Covid-19 strategy. Herd immunity was abandoned early on as it became clear hundreds of thousands would die. We entered lockdown in order to “flatten the curve” under the slogan: “Stay at home – Protect the NHS – Save lives”. Despite high levels of ongoing viral transmission, lockdown is now being eased with the injunction: “Stay alert – control the virus – save lives”. Slogans, however, do not constitute a strategy. Given the terrible cost of the pandemic, both in terms of lives lost and lasting damage to the economy, we call on you urgently to set out an explicit strategy in relation to Covid-19. We need an overall strategy for the UK, that is agreed with all the Devolved Nations. It must be flexible to allow for regional differences and decision making with a clear framework for how such decisions will be made.
Colleagues in Ireland, north and south, have set out a very clear vision of what must be done. We face the same choice: either live with the virus under a long-term mitigation / containment strategy waiting (possibly forever) for a vaccine or effective antiviral treatment, or suppress and eliminate new infections. They designate the latter approach “Crush the Curve”. Mitigation means accepting an ongoing toll of illness and lives lost, and living under the constant threat of local surges and possible national waves of infection and deaths. It also means public transport running at minimal capacity, insurmountable challenges for schools, businesses and services to run properly, indefinite restrictions on gatherings and socialising, and an NHS which will collapse under the combined weight of Covid-19 cases and the huge backlog of untreated patients with cancer and chronic conditions.
It appears to us that the Westminster government has chosen the path of mitigation, characterised by the analogy to the arcade game ‘Whac-a-mole’ where infection is expected to keep ‘popping up’ and those in charge do their best to guess where to put limited resources. Once more this is a slogan and not a strategy.
Many countries have successfully chosen to suppress the virus and eliminate infections, including South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Austria, Greece, China and Iceland. Their people are once again using public transport, returning to school, going out to eat and to shop, with healthcare systems caring for all patients, not only those with Covid-19, and economies already recovering. They demonstrate very clearly that eliminating the infection represents the best strategy in terms of both public health and protecting the economy.
This means having a much more ambitious target of suppressing the number of new cases to zero as soon as possible, and keeping it there. This requires continuing public health measures, such as maintaining social distancing, universal use of face masks in enclosed spaces, sensible travel restrictions, and setting up countrywide community based, efficient and rapid ‘find, test, trace, isolate and support’ infrastructure across the country, including at our borders. If done effectively and comprehensively this would successfully suppress the virus in a matter of weeks, and then keep it there.
We should be prepared to learn from other countries so that our people can also enjoy the considerably greater freedoms and prosperity this will bring. Travel, tourism, and trade with such states would be straightforward and beneficial. Our children will be back at school, vulnerable citizens and precious key workers protected.
The sacrifices made so far have reduced the number of new cases and deaths significantly, but a nadir has been reached with current measures, and we may now even be seeing a rise in infections. The national R value is perilously close to one and it is a question of when, not if, flare ups will occur, or even worse a second wave engulf us once again.
We think it is time for the government to develop and communicate a clear strategy and declare which path all of the UK will follow at this critical juncture.